Climate and Conflict

Climate Change, Conflict, and Violence

Climate change increases the risk of war and violence by exacerbating existing social, economic, and political tensions, leading to competition over resources, displacement of populations, and weakened governance structures. These factors contribute to both the likelihood and intensity of conflict in several key ways.

Resource Scarcity 🌾

Water and Food Shortages: As climate change reduces crop yields, disrupts water supplies, and causes extreme weather events, competition for essential resources like water and arable land intensifies. This can lead to conflicts between communities, regions, and even nations.

Economic Stress: Agricultural decline, particularly in regions dependent on farming, can lead to food insecurity, causing social unrest, protests, and potential violence. Nations heavily reliant on resource extraction may experience increased tensions as climate change affects production and global demand.

Displacement and Migration 🏚️

Climate-Induced Migration: Rising sea levels, droughts, and extreme weather events force people to migrate from their homes, leading to overcrowded cities and competition for jobs, shelter, and basic services. This can result in social tensions, xenophobia, and violence between migrants and local populations.

Cross-Border Conflicts: Large-scale displacement may exacerbate tensions between neighbouring countries, as they may struggle to cope with incoming refugees or migrants.

Weakening of Governments and Institutions ⚖️

Fragile States: Climate change strains government resources and infrastructure, especially in developing countries. This can weaken governance, increase corruption, and reduce the state’s ability to provide for its citizens, fostering instability and making regions more susceptible to insurgencies and extremist groups.

Erosion of Public Trust: As governments fail to address climate-induced challenges, citizens may lose trust in political institutions, leading to protests, civil disobedience, and, in some cases, violent uprisings.

Increased Inequality and Social Tensions 💵

Economic Disparities: Climate change disproportionately impacts marginalized communities, exacerbating inequality and social divisions. Economic hardship, especially in poorer areas, may fuel grievances and lead to violence, especially in regions with existing ethnic, political, or religious tensions.

Heightened Group Conflict: As resources become scarcer, there is an increased risk of ethnic, racial, and tribal conflicts over access to land, water, or food.

National Security Threats 🌍

Military Impact: Countries experiencing severe climate impacts may allocate military resources to secure vital resources, leading to geopolitical tensions and potential military conflict. Additionally, armed groups may exploit climate-induced crises to expand their influence in destabilized regions.

Read more:

UK Parliament – Climate Change and Security This resource discusses the complex risks that climate change poses to societies, including its potential to exacerbate conflicts.

UK Government – Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, and Biodiversity Loss This statement at the UN Security Council outlines how climate change, environmental degradation, and biodiversity loss are exacerbating conflict, contributing to global food insecurity, and threatening international peace and security.

UK Climate Risk – Climate Change and Security This section discusses the risks and opportunities facing the UK from climate change, including the potential for increased conflict due to environmental stressors.

Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment – UK Climate Change Risk Assessment This resource explores the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on businesses operating in the UK, including potential security risks arising from environmental changes.

Climate Change as a Risk Multiplier

Climate change as a “risk multiplier” refers to the way in which climate-related impacts amplify existing vulnerabilities, intensifying the likelihood of various risks, such as conflict, social instability, and economic disruption. Rather than being a singular cause of these issues, climate change exacerbates underlying problems, making them more severe and harder to manage.

Key Aspects: Climate change affects vital resources like water, food, and energy, which can heighten competition between communities or nations. It forces people to migrate, often to regions already struggling with poverty or political instability. Climate-related disasters overwhelm governments, particularly in vulnerable regions, leading to poor response capacities and eroding public trust. Climate change disrupts livelihoods, particularly in sectors like agriculture, fisheries, and tourism, exacerbating poverty, inequality, and social unrest.

In essence, climate change doesn’t just create new risks—it magnifies existing ones, making them more challenging to address.

Read more:

UK Climate Risk This platform offers comprehensive assessments of climate-related risks in the UK, highlighting how climate change exacerbates existing challenges across various sectors.

UK Parliament – Climate Change and Security This resource discusses how climate change amplifies security risks both domestically and internationally, affecting areas such as food and water security, and biosecurity.

The Guardian – UK is failing to put climate crisis at centre of national security measures This article examines how climate change is increasingly recognized as a “threat multiplier,” adding to instability and the risk of unrest in many countries.

The Construction of Climate Security by the United Kingdom—2007 to 2020 This academic chapter explores how the UK has framed climate change as a security threat, positioning it as a “threat multiplier” that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities.

UN News – Climate change recognized as ‘threat multiplier’ This article discusses how climate change is increasingly recognized as a “threat multiplier” by scientists, political representatives, and civil society across the world, affecting peace and security.